A full-funnel suite of propensity models for a healthcare staffing marketplace — scoring B2B facility prospects, nurse leads, and shift-level matches so sales, marketing, and ops focus on the highest-probability actions.
0.88PR-AUC nurse↔shift matching
0.98ROC-AUC nurse↔shift matching
0.63F1 nurse lead→active user
Context
Growth had to happen across every side of the marketplace.
A healthcare staffing marketplace has to grow on three fronts at once — sign new facilities (B2B sales), convert nurse signups into active workers, and fill every posted shift. Each is a different "who is most likely to act next?" question.
Complication
Teams were making high-volume decisions without propensity signals.
Sales chased facilities by gut feel, marketing treated every nurse lead the same, and ops had no signal for which nurses would actually claim a given shift — so effort scattered across low-probability targets.
Action
Built three propensity models on a shared feature and ML stack.
B2B Prospect Prioritization
Ranked not-yet-onboarded facilities into priority quintiles from public CMS quality signals, nearby nurse supply, and cluster modeling; results auto-sync to Salesforce monthly.
Nurse Lead → User Conversion
Predicted which nurse signups become active users within 60 days using XGBoost, Optuna tuning, and class-imbalance handling to focus onboarding and marketing spend.
Nurse ↔ Shift Matching
Ranked the nurses most likely to apply for each open shift using 50+ engagement, shift, and nurse-facility fit features with a strict posting-time train/test split to prevent leakage.
Production Stack
Served ONNX models off BigQuery feature tables, with DVC pipelines for reproducibility and MLflow for model tracking.
Result
Sales, marketing, and ops got ranked queues for their next best action.
Nurse↔shift matching: PR-AUC 0.88, ROC-AUC 0.98, Brier 0.05; consistent across license types, with top-1 license-match ~95% and state-match ~95% across thousands of open shifts scored.
Nurse lead→user conversion: test F1 0.63.
B2B prospect scoring: quintile rankings delivered to Salesforce automatically each month.
Client anonymized; metrics are from production models.
Model performance by license type (PR-AUC)Nurse↔shift matching